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☆ Exclusive: China orders local governments to cut exposure to public-private projects as debt risks rise, sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The guidelines were mentioned in a cabinet document that was circulated among local governments, policy banks and state lenders last month, said the two sources with knowledge of the matter. The move comes after numerous local governments' PPP expenditure hit the upper limit of the threshold in recent years. But the PPP boom has alarmed authorities who say some local governments have used public-private partnerships, government investment funds and government procurement services as "disguised channels" for raising debt. The State Council and the NAO did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comments. A portion of the $12.6 trillion local government debt is linked to the PPP projects, as municipalities used these infrastructure-building initiatives as a conduit to raise capital.

Persons: Thomas Peter, NAO, Kevin Yao, Ziyi Tang, Sumeet Chatterjee Organizations: Central Business District, National People's Congress, REUTERS, Rights, International Monetary Fund, National Audit, State, State Council, Bank of, Reuters, National Development, Reform Commission, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights BEIJING, Bank of China

☆ IMF upgrades China's 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

People wait to board trains at the Shanghai Hongqiao railway station ahead of the National Day holiday, in Shanghai, China September 28, 2023. GDP growth could slow to 4.6% in 2024 because of continued weakness in China's property sector and subdued external demand, the IMF said in a press release, albeit better than its October expectation of 4.2% in the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO). The combination of the downturn in the property sector and local government debt crunch could wipe out much of China's long-term growth potential, economists say. Local debt has reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion), or 76% of China's economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019. China should also develop a comprehensive restructuring strategy to reduce the debt level of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), she said.

Persons: Aly, IMF's, Gita Gopinath, Gopinath, LGFVs, Joe Cash, Ryan Woo, Edmund Klamann, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Monetary Fund, China's, Communist Party, Thomson Locations: Shanghai Hongqiao, Shanghai, China, Rights BEIJING, Gopinath

☆ Exclusive: China's cabinet curbs debt growth in 12 "high risk" regions - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The sources were citing a cabinet document dated late September that was delivered to local governments and state lenders this month. The move by China's cabinet, or the State Council, to contain local government debt has not been previously reported. HIGH-RISK REGIONSThe 12 regions were previously identified as areas with "high risks" of defaulting on debt obligations. The massive piles of debt highlights local governments' financial stress, fuelling concerns of a systemic financial crisis. The bond issuance is widely believed to be part of Beijing's measures to defuse debt risks of LGFVs.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, Don Durfee, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: REUTERS, Tyrone, Rights, State Council, Council, LGFVs, Communist Party, Reuters, Beijing, Thomson Locations: Central, Hong Kong, China, Rights BEIJING, Liaoning, Jilin, North Korea, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tianjin, Chongqing

☆ Exclusive: China tells banks to roll over local government debts as risks mount - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Local government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion), or 76% of the country's economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019. Reuters is reporting these measures for banks to defuse local debt risks for the first time. Banks are being encouraged to issue new loans to LGFVs to repay bonds and non-standard debt, the sources said. And, Chinese investors are rushing to buy bonds of LGFVs, including from the riskiest issuers, as Beijing's attempts to reduce local debt risks encourages them to bet on an implicit government guarantee. Over 2.1 trillion yuan LGFV bonds matured in the first half of 2023, and another 1.75 trillion yuan in the second half of this year and 1.69 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, the highest maturity pressure in history, the note said.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, ”, National Financial Regulatory Administration didn't, Banks, CLIFF LGFVs, LGFVs, Simon Cameron, Moore, Kim Coghill Organizations: AIA Central, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Cheung, Cheung Kong Centre, HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, REUTERS, Rights, People's Bank of China, Reuters, Treasury, National Financial Regulatory Administration, Communist Party, ANZ Research, UBS, Financial, Beijing, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: Cheung Kong, Hong Kong, China, Rights BEIJING, Beijing, Tianjin, Guizhou, Guangxi

☆ China’s growth is buried under great wall of debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Most of these 3,000-plus entities were created by local governments during the 2008 crisis to skirt a central government ban on direct state borrowing. These vehicles had already accumulated 80 trillion yuan of liabilities at the end of 2022, according to analysts at Guosheng Securities. At a more optimistic 30% discount, the proceeds would jump to 55 trillion yuan, which would cover all outstanding interest-bearing debt. S&P analysts calculate that about 20 trillion yuan of LGFVs’ loans may be at risk of restructuring. If Xi won't boost property wholeheartedly and is not able to count on consumers, his efforts to revive China’s growth have to focus on smashing the great wall of local debt.

Persons: Wen Jiabao, Xi Jinping, Wen, Xi, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, HK, Guosheng Securities, Citi, Finance, Reuters Graphics, Financial Times, Investment, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Shanghai, New York, China's Southwestern Guizhou, United States

The logo of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is pictured at the entrance to its branch in Beijing, China April 1, 2019. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (ICBC) (601398.SS), the country's biggest lender, and Bank of China (BoC) (601988.SS) posted in exchange filings first half profit growth of 1.2% and 0.78%, respectively, from a year earlier. "There are some regional risks that have begun to emerge," Liu said, adding that asset quality has declined slightly but remains under control. BoC's NIM narrowed to 1.67% at end-June from 1.7% at end-March. "Chinese banks are likely to continue to face earnings pressure from margin compression," said Ming Tan, director at S&P Global Ratings.

Persons: Florence, Liu Jiandong, Liu, NIM, BoC's NIM, ICBC, Ming Tan, Tan, BoC's, Ziyi Tang, Engen Tham, Selena Li, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, REUTERS, BoC, Commercial Bank of China Ltd, Bank of China, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, SHANGHAI, HONG KONG, ICBC's

Yields on one-year real estate bonds rated AA- have widened 220 bps in the past month, data from Chinabond shows. That divergence reflects investors' expectations that Beijing will support LGFVs in order to minimise financial contagion, despite rising delinquencies among developers. Yields on LGFV bonds issued in August averaged around 3.9%, the lowest seen this year, according to data provider Dealing Matrix(DM). The chorus of economists calling for China to support LGFVs as part of measures to shore up the economy has grown. Chi Lo, Hong Kong-based senior economist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said Beijing needs to refinance LGFV debt over the next three to five years to prevent the system from imploding.

Persons: Aly, Zhu Yangmo, LGFVs, Zhu, Chi Lo, Li Gu, Samuel Shen, Tom Westbrook, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, China Central Depository, Asset Management, Garden Holdings, HK, China International Capital Corp, Tianjin Infrastructure Investment Group, AAA, China, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Hainan, Beijing, Tianjin, Hong Kong, imploding, Singapore

☆ Country Garden: How bad is China's property crisis?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Clare Jim | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

HONG KONG, Aug 17 (Reuters) - The debt crisis at Country Garden (2007.HK), China's largest property developer before this year and once considered a financially sound company, has triggered fresh contagion fears just two years after China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) defaulted. S&P Global Rating said on Wednesday it could adjust its forecast for property sales to a "descending staircase" figure from an "L" shaped recovery, if Country Garden officially defaulted. However, it emerged when the property market and the economy are in much worse shape. Evergrande was already insolvent at the time of default, but Country Garden currently still has more assets than liabilities. Analysts warn that Country Garden could become insolvent if it had to write off large inventories, and run into negative equity if its asset values dropped over time.

Persons: Evergrande, Moody's, Lehman, Clare Jim, Sumeet Chatterjee, Stephen Coates Organizations: HK, China Evergrande, Local, Beijing, International, International Monetary, WILL, Communist Party, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Evergrande, China, Beijing

Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. BEIJING'S DILEMMALocal government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.8 trillion), or 76% of economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019. To avoid that risk, the adviser suggested all stakeholders bear some of the burden: financial institutions, local governments, Beijing and society at large. From 2015 to 2018, local governments issued some 12 trillion yuan of bonds to swap for off-balance sheet debt. For the local debt problem to stop re-occuring policymakers need to implement profound changes to how the economy works.

Persons: Florence Lo, China's, Guo Tianyong, Logan Wright, ”, Tao Wang, Guo, Rhodium's Wright, Marius Zaharia Organizations: REUTERS, Beijing, Communist Party, Central University of Finance, Economics, Monetary Fund, Reuters, Local, UBS, BBVA, Thomson Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, “, China, Lincoln

July 13 (Reuters) - Qingdao city in China's debt-laden Shandong province has set up a company to bail out its cash-strapped local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), sources said, as regional governments rush to reduce debt risks in a wobbly economy. The government of Qingdao and the China Development Bank did not reply to Reuters' requests for comment. While no LGFV in China has defaulted in the public markets, cases of delinquencies in the private debt market are increasing, worrying Beijing. Tianjin LGFV bonds yield more than 514 bps over government bonds, compared with 200 bps for Shandong bonds, reflecting the elevated risks. Fund manager Zhou said although he is bullish on LGFV bonds, "the first priority is to be absolutely diversified in investment.

Persons: Qingdao's, Xi Jinping, LGFVs, Goldman Sachs, Zhai Jianye, Zhai, It's, Zhou Tingzuo, Ning Yong, Zhou, Samuel Shen, Jason Xue, Tom Westbrook, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: Dongdin Industrial Group, China Development Bank, Southwest Securities, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Commercial Bank of China, SS, Shoupu Fund Management Co, Ning Yong Fu Fund Management, Thomson Locations: Qingdao, China's, Shandong, China, Shandong LGFVs, Beijing, Big, Jinan, Weifang, Liaoning, Hunan, Shanghai, Tianjin, Singapore

☆ China stares hard at its own lost decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, June 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China has good reason to hold back on unleashing big stimulus. The central bank has made small cuts to interest rates as everything from credit growth to exports disappoint. For President Xi Jinping, it’s a hard choice between short term gains and his long-term ambition to rebalance the economy. Even if it does issue such bonds, funds may be indirectly used to help poorer provinces repay debt. The Chinese government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after missing its 2022 goal.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, National Institution for Finance, Development, Wall Street, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: China, Beijing

☆ China is trying to dig up hidden, unpaid government bills in an attempt to minimize financial risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China is looking into hidden, unpaid debt across local governments, sources told Bloomberg. Officials have launched nationwide inspections in a sign that Beijing is trying to minimize financial risk. China has more than 3,000 administrative units, with many relying on "local government financing vehicles." Earlier this year, a Bloomberg survey found LGFVs were the most frequently cited risk among money managers and economists. Officially, China's Ministry of Finance reports local governments had 37 trillion yuan, or about $5.1 trillion, in debt outstanding, as of April, though there's no official tally for the hidden debt.

Persons: —, wouldn't, there's Organizations: Bloomberg, Officials, Service, Privacy, China, National, China's Ministry, Finance, People's Bank of, Communist Party's Locations: China, Beijing, People's Bank of China

☆ Analysis: Struggling China local governments find a fundraising loophole, lifeline in "pearl bonds"
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG, May 31 (Reuters) - China's cash-strapped local governments have suddenly rushed to an unusual corner of the debt market in Shanghai where ambiguous rules offer ways to skirt restrictions on onshore borrowing. LGFVs accounted for about two-thirds of the issuers and 60% of the debt sold this year nation-wide, according to Reuters' calculations. Among all the newly-issued FTZ bonds this year, 55, or two-thirds of all 82 issuers, were LGFVs, according to Reuters' calculations. The "pearl" or free trade zone (FTZ) bonds have been around since 2016 but are only now becoming popular as tighter central government supervision on LGFV debts starts to bite. AMBIGUOUS POSITIONING"Pearl bonds" differ from other offshore bonds as trades are cleared by the state-owned China Central Depository & Clearing Co, rather than a global clearing house.

Persons: Shi Xiaoshan, Fitch, Royston Quek, Tim Fang, Pearl, Zhang Hong, Georgina Lee, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill Organizations: U.S, Haitong International Securities, China Central Depository, Industrial, Group, Credit Agricole CIB, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Bank of Communications, Pudong New, Financial, Reform Commission, Reuters, The, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, HONG KONG, Shanghai, Beijing, U.S . Federal, Hong Kong, China, Zhejiang, Pudong, SINGAPORE

In poorer areas, which are bleeding people and private business to urban centres, the task of providing jobs falls more squarely on local governments at a time they are struggling to raise revenue through income tax and state land sales. However, "budgetary and debt pressures are more acute for these provinces, so increasing expenditure comes with additional fiscal risks," Yuan noted. The local governments adding the most jobs in relative terms are also among the most indebted. The local governments of Gansu, Yunnan and Guangxi did not respond to a request for comment and Reuters could not establish exactly why the governments are ramping up hiring and how it will impact their finances. Moody's Yuan said local governments including Gansu have faced increased refinancing pressure to meet their debt obligations.

☆ China's debt-heavy local governments look for new ways to raise cash
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Debt-heavy local governments in China need new ways to raise money under a central regime that's made clear its priority is to reduce financial risks. "We should ... prevent a build-up of new debts while working to reduce existing ones," the report said regarding local governments' situation. S&P and other analysts estimate land sales account for about a quarter of local governments' total revenue. But local governments still have bills and public services to pay for. Historically, local governments were responsible for more than 85% of expenditure but only received about 60% of tax revenue, Rhodium Group said in 2021.

As debt obligations mount, some local governments are pushing banks to extend maturities and cut interest rates, sources said. Reuters Graphics"BLACK HOLES""The LGFVs have become the black hole of the Chinese financial system. Chinese banks and other financial institutions have been cautious on new lending to LGFVs over the past years. In recent months, some state-owned banks, asset managers, and insurers have been looking into their portfolios to screen LGFV borrowers with weaker creditworthiness and dispose them, separate financial sector sources told Reuters. Offshore branches of Chinese financial institutions have been major buyers of the bonds, industry sources said.

☆ China's cities are struggling to pay their bills from three years of Covid and a real estate crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Rolling lockdowns seriously dented household incomes, leading many to reduce spending, which in turn resulted in less tax revenue for local governments. “China’s runaway local debt poses a serious threat to the country’s overall economic health and will weigh heavily on China’s still-nascent recovery,” said Singleton. Debt that is backed by local governments but which doesn’t show up on their balance sheets could be much bigger. That’s more than 20% higher than the estimate of 53 trillion yuan made by Goldman Sachs in 2021. Their debt squeeze could pose a serious threat to China’s financial system, particularly to small regional banks.

DEBT STRESSTreasury bond quotas could be increased, so that some of them could be transferred to local governments to ease their fiscal stress, said Luo Zhiheng, chief macroeconomic analyst at Yuekai Securities. Combined with some maturing debts of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) - investment companies that build infrastructure projects - this year and the next will be most stressful for local governments, he said. According to financial media outlet Yicai, local governments' revenue from fines and confiscations jumped 10.4% in January-July year-on-year. The fiscal stress is cutting into some households' income, a red flag for consumption and broader growth. As there is no way out, they have had to ask the local government fiscal department for money."

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